Knowledge shortfall could impact climate change strategies

A Cranfield University review of existing research into the impact of climate change on crop production in Africa and South Asia, suggests the resulting effect could be much worse than previously predicted.

The review focused on existing studies of crop production in Africa and South Asia, two of the world’s most food-insecure yet agriculturally dependent regions. Eight major crops – maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, millet, cassava, yam and sugarcane – which collectively account for 80% of total production were examined.

The study will provide policy makers and practitioners with a robust assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on crop yield, and the areas and crops where attention should be focused, in order to develop appropriate strategies for climate adaptation.

The Cranfield team, working with Professor Tim Wheeler, the Government’s Deputy Chief Scientist at the Department for International Development (DFID), and the University of Reading, undertook the first comprehensive review of all literature relating to climate change in the regions. Their review identified significant variations in existing evidence, both in terms of region and crop type, identifying that current studies fail to give a true reflection of the potential impact of the changing climate.

Cranfield’s Dr Jerry Knox, who led the research, said “Given global concern over the vulnerability of certain crops in some regions of Africa and South Asia, an evidence-based approach to policy is essential to ensure the right decisions by food production policy makers positively affect the right people.

“We need to ensure as much evidence as possible is gathered on the impact of climate change before making decisions on how to move forward”, added Dr Knox

Climate change will clearly threaten farming livelihoods of the rural poor in Africa and South Asia, where limited access to agricultural knowledge and technology will hamper their ability to adapt. Some changes, such as shifting planting dates, modifying crop rotations or different crop varieties may help offset some negative impacts of climate change.

The greatest benefits are likely to occur from more expensive adaptation measures including the development of new crop varieties and uptake of new technologies such as the expansion of irrigation infrastructure.