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Gleadell Market Report

GRAIN MARKETS – David Sheppard, managing director

Ukrainian farm ministry reports that farmers are likely to increase the sown area for the 2011 grain crop to 15.7mln hectares, from about 15.2mln in 2010. The area under grains could be larger by 528,000 hectares.  The farm ministry also reports 56% of the winter grain crops are in good condition, 38% satisfactory and 6% poor. APK-inform reports that favourable weather may boost Ukraines 2011 grain harvest by 24% to 48.7mmt.

Chinas NDRC reports that country is holding 100mmt of wheat stocks, with total grain reserves reported at about 40% of its annual consumption

Bumper sowings and plentiful rains have put India on course for a fourth successive record wheat harvest as reported by US officials, forecasting that the country may be forced to resume exports to free storage space.  Indias wheat plantings reaches record levels of 29.4mln hectares as of  March 4th, compared with 28.36mln last year

France exported 1.3mmt of soft wheat in January, putting total shipments in the first seven months of the 2010/11 season at 11.4mmt, 26% ahead of last year. Sales to Non-EU countries were reported at 7.7mmt, up 48% on the year.

DEFRA reports UK wheat area planted as of December 1st 2010 at 1.937mln hectares, up 0.2% on December 2009.

USDA report released today left US Corn stocks unchanged, but raised wheat stocks by 25mln bushels due to lower export projections. Global corn stocks increased slightly to 123.14mmt, up from 122.51mmt last month, with wheat stocks increased by 4.13mmt to 181.9mmt, from 177.77mmt last month.

The commodity sell-off, mainly as a result of increased concerns over recent events in North Africa / Middle East and potential demand, coincided with better weather prospects for the US plains and reports that Chinas drought situation was easing. Marker fundamentals still remain tight, but have a bit more slack than a few weeks ago. New crop prospects, while still remaining favourable, are still open to weather scares / production issues. And these, if and when they happen, will encourage buying interest rather than selling.

OILSEED MARKETS – Jonathan Lane, trading manager

This week the market has witnessed strong liquidation as the market remains concerned over current events in North Africa / Middle East countries, and its possible affect over future demand.

From the highs of Monday, Chicago beans have fallen 75c/bu on old crop and 50c/bu on new crop, as an increase in the forecast for South American new crop bean harvests eases the pressure on current tight supplies.

With global vegetable oil markets also under pressure, soyoil levels have also fallen in price, dragging rapeseed lower.

MATIF values since last week have fallen 12 on old and 15 on new crop, with the market trading a further 6-7 lower this morning, as the commodity liquidation continues prior to the USDA report.

The Ukraine Ministry of Agriculture reported that 52% of the rapeseed crop is in satisfactory condition, with 39% rated good and 8% weak and thinned.

The USDA released their supply & demand estimates today, leaving US stocks unchanged after months of declining stocks levels. However, EU rapeseed and US bean fundamentals still remain extremely tight, and any future weather / planting problems would encourage buying interest.

GRAIN market information contact David Sheppard, managing director, on 01427 421222

OILSEED market information contact Jonathan Lane, trading manager, on 01427 421222

  •   Gleadell Agriculture currently has offices in Full Sutton (Yorkshire), Hemswell (Lincolnshire),  Swaffham  (Norfolk), Lyndon (Rutland), Warminster (Wiltshire) and Bilsborrow (Lancashire).
  • Gleadell Agriculture Ltd is equally owned by Toepfer International – based in Hamburg, who trade in all agricultural products globally; and InVivo – based in Paris, who trade agricultural products on the international markets and operate major grain storage and handling facilities.
  • Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.
  • Gleadell Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.
  • mln/t = million tonnes, mt = metric tonnes, kg/hl = kilogram per hectolitre, k/mt = thousand tonnes.

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