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Gleadell Market Report


  • Frances Agrimer leaves its estimate of Non-EU soft wheat exports unchanged at 11.5mln/t, projected French ending stocks at the end of 2010/11 at 2.2mln/t. 
    • Ukraines 2010 grain harvest reported at 39.6mln/t, down 6.5mln/t on the year. Wheat crop is estimated at 17.2mln/t with yields falling to 2.73t/hectare from 3.09t/hectare a year ago.  Ukraine will extend its grain export quotas into the first half of 2011.
    • Low Russian grain stocks may raise imports, analysts report. Stocks stood at 41.6mln/t as of October 1st down 21% from a year ago, and at their lowest since 1998.
    • Australian wheat quality is starting to suffer as rain delays harvest progress in the east. Western Australia still suffering from dry conditions, with crop projections being well lower than last year. Increased feed quality could boost feed wheat sales to Asia Pacific.
    • UK wheat exports rose sharply in September to 386,057 tonnes, bringing the year to date figure (July-Sept) to 854,316 tonnes. Last year at this time, the UK has exported 440,669 tonnes and, with imports also since below last years figure, the exportable surplus continues to shrink.
    • The uncertainty over a possible Chinese interest rate hike in an order to control food prices and inflation, has led to a general commodity sell-off over the past few days. Traders, holding long positions, have liquidated position on the possible down-turn in demand from China.
    • Wheat markets have felt the overriding pressure from the Chinese financial markets as jitters caused traders to dump long positions. Long-term, the bullish fundamentals remain in place with tightening global stocks and supplies.  Within the UK, the strong pace of exports and reduced imports, due to crop quality and higher international prices, has reduced the exportable surplus further. With traders believing the official crop figure is too high, the estimate of exports reaching in excess of 1.5mln/t by the end of the year would see the exportable surplus not only already accounted for but, in fact, already shipped.

For further information contact David Sheppard, managing director, on 01427 421222

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