Latest Gleadell grains & grainseed market report

GRAIN MARKETS – David Sheppard, managing director 

WHEAT

Grain markets remain extremely choppy with various factors having contrary effects on price levels.

In Europe, the harvest has stalled from central France northwards as wet weather has stopped play. There are some concerns that quality may be impaired in northern parts of France.  However, conditions remain very supportive for a large EU corn crop.

Recent crop estimates have raised the size of the EU soft wheat crop following rain in June and early July.  With Russian and Ukrainian prices trading at significant discounts to EU levels it is clear that importers who can accept Russian/Ukrainian wheat will buy that rather than EU origin.

In the USA, extremely hot weather has raised concerns regarding the pollinating corn crop.  Added to doubts as to the validity of the USDAs planting estimates, this has supported Corn and wheat prices in US markets.

Ukraines farm minister raised the official estimate of their grain crop to 47mln/t.  This is 4.6mln/t above the USDAs forecast of last week.  Egypt is also rumoured to be about to re-admit the Ukraine as a wheat supplier.

Actual market activity remains at low levels.  We have yet to see any UK wheat cut and therefore quality and yield are unknown.  Consumers are largely absent from the market but so are farmers – whilst the macro-economic picture in the euro zone and in the US is a cause for concern.  In amongst all of this the next price move is hard to call.  Uncertainty breeds more uncertainty, which in the grain world equates to more volatility. 

OILSEED MARKETS – Jonathan Lane, trading manager

Frustrating!  This is probably the best way of summing up the rapeseed market this week.  This should have been the week when we saw harvest really get going in many regions of the UK but the weather has beaten us.  We were given one interesting statistic yesterday that summed the situation up very well.Rain fall in North West Cambridgeshire – 18th February – 18th July 48mm of rainfall, 19th of July 3.30pm – 4.05pm 32mm of rainfall !!!!  – Nature generally seems to find a way to adjust. 

The yields on the few crops that have been cut appear to be very good and most growers seem to be pleasantly surprised.  We have subsequently revised our crop estimates back up to 2.5mln/t giving us a significant exportable surplus.  However, even with the higher crop, the S&D for Europe is still very tight and we still expect to see a draw down in ending stocks that should ultimately support prices. But in the short term, especially given the relatively poor carry, we wouldnt be surprised to see some harvest pressure. 

New grain passports please remember that all rapeseed deliveries must be accompanied by the new 2011 passport and that the crushers will not accept deliveries where section 8 of this new passport has not been fully completed! 

GRAIN market information contact David Sheppard, managing director, on 01427 421222  david.sheppard@gleadell.co.uk 

OILSEED market information contact Jonathan Lane, trading manager, on 01427 421222   jonathan.lane@gleadell.co.uk 

• Gleadell Agriculture currently has offices in Full Sutton (Yorkshire), Hemswell (Lincolnshire), Swaffham  (Norfolk), Lyndon (Rutland), Warminster (Wiltshire) and Bilsborrow (Lancashire).
• Gleadell Agriculture Ltd is equally owned by Toepfer International – based in Hamburg, who are one of the largest global traders of agricultural products; and InVivo – based in Paris, who are the leading provider of goods and services to their partner cooperatives and one of the largest traders of European grain.
• Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.
• Gleadell Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.
• mln/t = million tonnes, mt = metric tonnes, kg/hl = kilogram per hectolitre, k/mt = thousand tonnes.