Gleadell Market Report

GRAIN MARKETS – David Sheppard, managing director

WHEAT

Ukrainian grain stock reported at 10.1mln/t as of April 1st, down 2% than at the same date in 2010.

UkrAgroConsult stated that a jump in the countrys 2011 grain harvest and high stocks will allow grain exports to rebound from this season to 23.4mln/t, up from a previous figure of 21.5mln/t.  The agency also said that the increase would be mostly wheat and maize, with barley exports lower.

Speculation is growing within the US that Russia might lift its grain export ban within weeks, bringing back to the market a fiercely-competitive grain exporter after a years restrictions following a drought-devastated harvest.

US winter wheat crop conditions remain unchanged on the week, with 36% reported in good/excellent condition. The USDA also declared that, due to rain in the corn belt, plantings had slowed, raising concerns that farmers will struggle to plant the projected 92mln acres this season.

UK wheat exports were reported at 119k/mt for February, bringing the season-to-date figure to 2.224mln/t.

Market values have rallied this week, mainly on the back of weather related issues. Crop conditions remain critical in the US HRW wheat areas, and corn plantings are behind the expected pace. Weather conditions across most of mainland Europe remains dry, with little or no rain seen in the forecasts over the next week, adding to the market sentiment for new crop and, therefore, old crop supplies.

It appears that Goldman Sachs – prior to their recommendations last week – failed to speak to the weather office!

OILSEED MARKETS – Jonathan Lane, trading manager

US soy futures have crept higher over the week despite sluggish demand.

Weather forecasts in the US continue to suggest that wet weather will delay plantings, and the rally in corn and wheat has also helped to support prices.

The old crop rapeseed market in Europe is now all but over as crushers are well covered and, due to Australian imports, it would appear that there is plenty of seed available.

On the new crop, however, it is a rather different picture.  Prices have rallied on the back of the sharp jump in grains as dry weather continues to underpin prices.

A resurgence in crude oil prices after their recent setback, combined with the weaker , have also helped to lift UK farm gate prices back to near contract highs. But this market is really all about the weather at the moment and, if it rains, prices will probably come down.

GRAIN market information contact David Sheppard, managing director, on 01427 421222 david.sheppard@gleadell.co.uk

OILSEED market information contact Jonathan Lane, trading manager, on 01427 421222 jonathan.lane@gleadell.co.uk

• Gleadell Agriculture currently has offices in Full Sutton (Yorkshire), Hemswell (Lincolnshire), Swaffham  (Norfolk), Lyndon (Rutland), Warminster (Wiltshire) and Bilsborrow (Lancashire).
• Gleadell Agriculture Ltd is equally owned by Toepfer International – based in Hamburg, who are one of the largest global traders of agricultural products; and InVivo – based in Paris,  who are the leading provider of goods and services to their partner cooperatives and one of the largest traders of European grain.
• Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.
• Gleadell Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.
• mln/t = million tonnes, mt = metric tonnes, kg/hl = kilogram per hectolitre, k/mt = thousand tonnes.