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Gleadell Market Update


UK wheat prices have eased again, despite a weaker : rate, as futures markets around the world have all set contract lows, says David Sheppard, managing director, Gleadell Agriculture.

Anticipating a potential further fall in UK prices, some UK co-ops have been seen aggressively selling UK feed wheat into northern Spain and Portugal for September and October, at prices that equate to the low 80s ex farm. Whilst this may well turn out to be a correct course of action in the longer run, it is either brave or foolhardy to discount the UK domestic market to this extent at this stage. Also it is unlikely to receive a chorus of approval from their pool members, if indeed it is pool or committed grain that they are pricing at these levels, given where the market has come from over the past six months.

Recent rainfall in Australia has boosted crop prospects with forecasts for a crop between 22 and 23mln/t now the norm.

Fridays USDA supply and demand report is expected to boost Corn production and stock levels which will not be supportive for prices.

The debacle that is the EUs GM tolerance situation continues to rumble on. This situation, particularly with regard to soya, threatens the long term competitiveness of the EU livestock sector and it beggars belief that narrow minded politicians in some member states continue to block the importation of products that the rest of the world see as safe to use.

The wheat market cannot go down every day, but the trend is still down and there is not much, apart from a lower :, that can stem the tide. Prices for 2010/11 reflect a solid premium over 2009/10 and have, unsurprisingly, attracted some interest. Also the carry for May 2010 over November 2009 is still paying its way, but we will need a significant crop problem in a major producing region to turn things around, Mr. Sheppard adds.

David Sheppard. Telephone 01427 421222 or


Favourable growing conditions for the potentially record US soybean crop has seen prices come under pressure in the last week. Several analysts are forecasting higher production and will get another update from the USDA tomorrow with expectation of another jump in yield taking the crop to just under 90mln/t,says Jonathan Lane, Gleadell oilseed rape trader.

With the US markets drifting lower, the Matif rapeseed market hasnt been able to resist, despite the sharp rally in crude oil, but European rapeseed is now the cheapest origin in the world. Given the large volumes of rapeseed that have been sold to both China and Pakistan in the recent days/week, we still believe that market will recover in the medium to longer term,Mr Lane adds.

Jonathan Lane. Telephone 01427 421222 or

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